Intels Tick-Tock-Modell läuft aus

IntelAls Intel im Jahre 2006 die bahnbrechende Core-Mikroarchitektur vorstellte, rief man zugleich das so genannte Tick-Tock-Modell aus. Dieses beinhaltet, dass Intel im Turnus von zwei Jahren das Fertigungsverfahren verkleinert (Tick) und eine ganz neue Architektur (Tock) vorstellt. Hinter diesem ehrgeizigen und zunächst auch noch umsetzbaren Plan ist in den letzten Jahren eine dunkle Wolke aufgezogen. In der Praxis ist dieses Modell für Intel nicht mehr zu stemmen.

In der jährlich erscheinenden 10-K-Mitteilung informiert Intel über das Auslaufen dieses Modells. Der Schritt dazu muss den Kaliforniern nicht einfach gefallen sein, denn als sich Broadwell 2015 aufgrund von Fertigungsproblemen verschob und der so genannte Haswell-Refresh ohne neues Fertigungsverfahren dazwischen geschoben werden musste, hielt man trotzdem eisern an seiner Strategie fest. Die neue Architektur Skylake schaffte es dann auch wieder verhältnismäßig schnell auf den Markt (Mitte 2015). Mit Kaby Lake steht jedoch erneut nur ein Refresh ohne neues Fertigungsverfahren auf dem Programm, da sich die 10 Nanometer-Fertigung schwieriger als gedacht herausstellt. Wohl zu viel für Intels Tick-Tock-Modell und daher das Ende einer Ära.

Doch wie geht es jetzt bei Intel ohne das Tick-Tock-Modell weiter? Wie erwähnt, wird Skylake noch im selben, 14 Nanometer-Verfahren dieses Jahr durch Kaby Lake ein Update erhalten. Cannonlake soll dann in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2017 den Weg zu 10 Nanometer ebnen und darauf basierend auch 2018/2019 eine neue Architektur hervorzaubern. Die 7 Nanometer-Fertigung wird folglich nicht vor 2020 zu erwarten sein.
Damit gerät der Prozessorriese zumindest fertigungstechnisch unter Druck: Die Auftragsfertiger Globalfoundries und TSMC preschen vor. Sie wollen noch diesen Sommer auf 10 Nanometer umstellen und Anfang 2017 gar 7 Nanometer in die Risikoproduktion überführen. Auch wenn die Strukturbreiten beider Unternehmen nicht eins zu eins zu vergleichen sind, ist dennoch festzuhalten, dass TSMC und co. Intels jahrlange, technologische Führerschaft gehörig angreifen.

Und nicht nur die Auftragsfertiger haben es auf Intel abgesehen, auch ihr alter Erzfeind AMD verspricht, noch in diesem Jahr durch die neue Zen-Architektur zu alter Stärke zurückzukehren. Mit 40 Prozent besserer Leistung/Takt möchte man nicht nur auf Intel aufschließen, sondern diese auch überholen. Inwieweit AMD hier Taten sprechen lassen kann, steht aber auch noch auf einem anderen Blatt. Nach dem Athlon 64 hatten alle neuen AMD-Architekturen weitaus mehr versprochen, als sie letztenendes im Stande waren, zu leisten.


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